In International Shipping News 15/05/2015
Global economy is in a gradual recovery mode, sending mixed signals to investors. Chinese economic data continues to remain weak as economy transitions from an investment-led economy to consumption-led. We expect PBOC to continue with monetary easing with weak data prints raising concerns over growth. US GDP grew at an anaemic pace of 0.2% in 1Q15, but jobs data for April was strong. Meanwhile, the manufacturing activity in Eurozone is reviving and deflationary pressures are easing, helping continued economic recovery.
Oil and bunkers:
Oil prices staged a tremendous rally in past month with Brent up almost 50% since their multi year lows. Falling rig numbers in US shale and geopolitical tensions in Yemen helped the market sentiment. However, the increase in OPEC output and refineries’ maintenance in the second quarter will keep oil prices in check, in our view. Lower oil prices will help lower the cash break-even for ship operators.
Container Shipping:
Just when it looked like the container shipping industry is on its road to recovery, a sudden spurt in vessel ordering seems to derail the progress. In March, multiple orders were placed for vessels of 20k teu and above (ULCVs) by several carriers including MOL, CMA CGM and OOCL. Such order frenzy not only creates significant capacity over-supply but also financing issues. We believe, as the industry is still reeling under high debt, which exceeded USD 80bn as of end 2014, only the strongest players with healthy balance sheets will be able to successfully finance ULCV orders with their own money.
Gas shipping:
LNG freight rates fell to the lowest since 2010 because of subdued demand and higher vessel supply. Within LPG shipping, VLGC freight rates started picking up on the back of congestion at Indian ports and start of a seasonally strong 2Q15. Freight rates of small-sized vessels also registered marginal improvement. Gas shipping stocks delivered an average return of 6% in April.
Dry bulk shipping:
The dry bulk sector continued to face headwinds due to lack of cargo availability and vessel oversupply. We expect 2015 to remain challenging, even though we are hopeful of a mild recovery in 2016 because of high vessel demolition and lack of new ordering that will favourably tilt the market equilibrium. This is mirrored by stock performance of dry bulk shipping operators vis-à-vis their counterparts in the maritime space such liners, tankers and port operators.
Tankers shipping:
Tanker charter rates have moved northwards on the back of increased non-OECD consumption, higher refinery runs and margins, lower crude oil prices, greater floating storage and tight supply. At high charter rates and lower operating costs, tanker shipping companies are expected to post higher operating revenues and improved net earnings. We expect the sector will continue to outperform the wider shipping sector on firmer rates and underlying earnings momentum.
Port Operators:
Hong Kong-listed port operators underwent rerating in April because of policy implementation. As earnings are expected to take centre stage in May, we remain optimistic that the port sector as a whole will reflect the uptick in global trade and continue to outperform MSCI World Index.
